This video highlights some of our contrarian macroeconomic views, informing the themes within our strategies.
Paravene Capital: Macroeconomic Outlook – March 2024
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Insights
Macroeconomics
Controlling the Bab Al Mandab strait: the key to avoiding stagflation?
The Houthi rebel attacks on vessels in the Red Sea are of significance and whilst the West seems to be in control of the Bab Al Mandab strait currently, we believe if that changes and supply chains become disrupted inflationary pressure will follow and either delay interest rate cuts or lead to sharp hikes.
The sticky business of inflation forecasts
As global inflation rates slowly fall during 2023, we discuss the accuracy of analyst forecasts and if a ‘pivot’ from the Federal Reserve is on the horizon.
The challenges of running twin deficits for the Japanese economy
The Bank of Japan is in a difficult situation and the decisions that it and its allies make over the coming months could have a wide-reaching impact on global financial markets.
Rising supply-side pressures point to global inflation for the long-term
We discuss some of the forces that are currently exerting upwards pressure on prices and ask investors if they are properly prepared for the potential effects of inflation on their portfolios.
Is Quantitative Tightening a Major Policy Mistake for the Federal Reserve?
With inflationary pressures growing, how many rate rises can the US be expected to make in a challenging economic environment?
US Debt Levels and the Role of the Federal Reserve
Should growing US debt be the priority of the Federal Reserve?
